Markov chain modeling of cyber threats

Cyber security is a complex, multifaceted, poorly understood problem domain. As the use of digital technology grows, the threat environment continues to evolve dynamically. Traditional approaches for cyber security focus on understanding and addressing vulnerabilities. While this mindset is necessary, it is not sufficient. A better understanding of the nature of existing and future cyber threats is needed to make informed defensive decisions that optimize the use of limited resources. Here, we address this deficiency by applying Markov Chain methods to descriptions of observed cyber threats. The goal of this effort is to identify previously unknown themes of common vulnerabilities. We present the results of our study and discuss its implications. Then we conclude and provide direction for future work.

Recommended citation: Gore, Ross; Padilla, Jose; Diallo, Saikou. (2017). "Markov chain modeling of cyber threats." The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation. 14(3), 233-244.
Download Paper