Estimating the health effects of adding bicycle and pedestrian paths at the census tract level: multiple model comparison
Published in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2022
Adding additional bicycle and pedestrian paths to an area can lead to improved health outcomes for residents over time. However, quantitatively determining which areas benefit more from bicycle and pedestrian paths, how many miles of bicycle and pedestrian paths are needed, and the health outcomes that may be most improved remain open questions. Our work provides and evaluates a methodology that offers actionable insight for city-level planners, public health officials, and decision makers tasked with the question: To what extent will adding specified bicycle and pedestrian path mileage to a census tract improve residents health outcomes over time?
We conducted a factor analysis of data from the American Community Survey, Center for Disease Control 500 Cities project, Strava, and bicycle and pedestrian path location and use data from two different cities (Norfolk, Virginia, and San Francisco, California). We constructed 2 city-specific factor models and used an algorithm to predict the expected mean improvement that a specified number of bicycle and pedestrian path miles contributes to the identified health outcomes. We show that given a factor model constructed from data from 2011 to 2015, the number of additional bicycle and pedestrian path miles in 2016, and a specific census tract, our models forecast health outcome improvements in 2020 more accurately than 2 alternative approaches for both Norfolk, Virginia, and San Francisco, California.
Recommended citation: Gore, Ross; Lynch, Christopher J; Jordan, Craig A; Collins, Andrew; Robinson, R Michael; Fuller, Gabrielle; Ames, Pearson; Keerthi, Prateek; Kandukuri, Yash. (2022). "Estimating the health effects of adding bicycle and pedestrian paths at the census tract level: multiple model comparison." JMIR public health and surveillance. 8(8), e37379.
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