Dr. Ross Gore

Dr. Ross Gore

I am Research Associate Professor at Old Dominion University My work focuses on data science and predictive analytics. I am is passionate about extracting useful information from new and diverse data sources to help inform decision making.

Short-range forecasting of COVID-19 during early onset at county, health district, and state geographic levels using seven methods: comparative forecasting study

Published in Journal of medical Internet research, 2021

COVID-19 forecasts keep the public informed and contribute to public policy. As such, proper understanding of forecasting purposes and outcomes is needed to advance knowledge of health statistics for policy makers and the public. Using publicly available real-time data provided online, we aimed to evaluate the performance of seven forecasting methods utilized to forecast cumulative COVID-19 case counts. Forecasts were evaluated based on how well they forecast 1, 3, and 7 days forward when utilizing 1-, 3-, 7-, or all prior–day cumulative case counts during early virus onset. This study provides an objective evaluation of the forecasting methods to identify forecasting model assumptions that contribute to lower error in forecasting COVID-19 cumulative case growth. This information benefits professionals, decision makers, and the public relying on the data provided by short-term case count estimates at varied geographic levels.

Recommended citation: Lynch, Christopher J; Gore, Ross. (2021). "Short-range forecasting of COVID-19 during early onset at county, health district, and state geographic levels using seven methods: comparative forecasting study." Journal of medical Internet research. 23(3), e24925.
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